The research should make us skeptical.
Republican candidates poured millions of dollars into advertisements targeting transgender people and their rights in the final stretch of the 2024 election. Many of these ads target transgender children. Why – and did this strategy work? The results from the election suggest these ads might have played a role in the outcome of some key races.
Did transgender issues factor into Senate and gubernatorial races?
The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC set up initially to protect Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and the GOP majority, is largely responsible for the surge in anti-trans messaging in this election. Some reports suggest this PAC spent upwards of $80 million in races across the country. Many of these ads aired during sporting events and seem to target young white men with anti-trans messaging.
In Ohio, incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown was attacked by his Republican opponent, Bernie Monero. A slew of advertisements claimed Brown would allow transgender people to compete in sports. Rather than taking a stance against blanket bans that keep transgender athletes from competing, Brown capitulated. He released an ad during Sunday Night Football to align himself with Ohio Governor Mike DeWine’s position that these decisions are best made by the government and sporting associations.
Brown also unequivocally denied the allegation that he allowed “transgender males” to compete against non-trans women. Critics have raised concerns that Brown’s response played into fear-mongering from Republicans – and that he missed a crucial opportunity to defend transgender constituents. Monero’s victory flipped the seat that Brown has held since 2007.
In New Hampshire, Governor John Sununu recently signed a slew of anti-trans laws. Sununu announced he would retire last year, which opened up the governor’s office. Republican Kelly Ayotte faced off against Democrat Joyce Craig, a vocal opponent of anti-trans laws, saying that they are attacks on at-risk kids. On Wednesday morning, that race was declared a victory for Ayotte.
But do these ads work? What the research says.
Although Republicans have won several key offices, it’s less clear that anti-trans advertising actually helped to tip the scales, according to recent studies.
A new Data for Progress poll examined which issues are most salient for voters and included a battery of questions focused on the economy, immigration, and transgender issues. That poll found that voters consistently ranked transgender issues last, and least important to their decision at the ballot box.
If anything, voters seem to think there was too much talk about trans issues this election season. A majority of respondents (80%) agreed with the statement, “both Democrats and Republicans should spend less time talking about transgender issues and more time talking about voters’ priority issues like the economy and inflation.”
Moreover, 52% of survey respondents stated that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports transgender rights over one who doesn’t. This finding corroborates earlier findings by political scientists that indicate people are generally uncomfortable with attacks on vulnerable groups’ civil rights.
Other studies suggest that these kinds of ads do not change people’s minds. In October 2024, Ground Media and GLAAD fielded an experiment that tested how viewers respond to a Trump ad targeting transgender people, comparing the findings to a control group that viewed a separate ad. That study found that there was no statistically significant impact in voter choice, mobilization, or likelihood to vote.
The study did identify one area where ads have an impact: diminishing acceptance for transgender people. Viewers who were exposed to the anti-transgender ads were less likely to support transgender people accessing healthcare and expressed reduced comfort with the idea of having a transgender friend or colleague.
What do anti-trans ads accomplish?
Trump’s victory in November 2024 as well as Republicans winning back the Senate suggests that anti-trans advertisements might just be the tip of the iceberg. Trump has promised to ban transgender girls and women from competing in sports. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 – which many Americans see as a worrying indication of the incoming Trump administration’s policy priorities – promises to cement the primacy of marriages between biological men and women.
This anti-trans political climate carries significant implications for transgender people and their health. The Trevor Project, which monitors the mental health and wellbeing of LGBTQ+ youth, fielded a survey in 2024 that found a significant association between anti-trans discourse and increased suicide risk amongst transgender youth. And 90% of LGBTQ+ youth said that their mental health was significantly impacted by recent politics.
Transgender adults are also negatively affected by anti-trans ads. An August 2024 study reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that transgender adults in Washington who were concerned about their rights being taken away were more likely to report depression and anxiety symptoms.
Although it’s unclear what role anti-trans advertisements had in the election results, one thing is clear: The situation for trans people moving forward is bleak.
The post The GOP spent millions on anti-trans ads. Did it work? appeared first on Good Authority.