The latest on hits to trade and HIV programs – and a controversial refugee program for white Afrikaners.
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Relations between the United States and South Africa have been strained in the last two years, stemming from two major departures between the countries’ foreign policies. First, U.S. officials claimed South Africa transferred weapons to Russia in late 2022 to aid Russia’s war effort in Ukraine (though South African officials dispute this). Second, South Africa initiated a genocide case against Israel in the International Court of Justice in 2024 – a case in which the U.S. was directly implicated.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, however, the diplomatic frictions have increased markedly. This new wave of tensions was kicked off by Trump’s Feb. 7, 2025, executive order setting up a special refugee program for white, Afrikaner farmers in response to the passage of new land laws in South Africa. In addition to widespread cuts to U.S. foreign aid across the board, in February the Trump administration specifically froze all aid going to South Africa. In the immediate wake of the funding freeze and the executive order, Secretary of State Marco Rubio also pulled out of a ministerial meeting for this year’s G20 summit, accusing South Africa of being “anti-American.”
The White House blames South Africa’s 2025 Expropriation Bill for the bilateral strains. But the influence of Trump’s coterie of white South African-born appointees and advisors – including Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and David Sachs – has also contributed to the new frictions between the two countries. Since the executive order was published, diplomatic hostilities have increased – including a two-way fight over ambassadors – and the funding freeze’s effects are starting to bite. Here’s what you need to know about the recent developments in South Africa-U.S. relations.
The U.S. expelled South Africa’s ambassador
On March 14, Secretary of State Marco Rubio took the extraordinary step of expelling the South African ambassador to the United States. While the U.S. has expelled Russian and other diplomats intermittently since the end of the Cold War, the expulsion of ambassadors is more unusual, especially outside of ongoing tensions. During the 2011 Wikileaks aftermath, for example, both the U.S. and Ecuador expelled their respective ambassadors. While nothing in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations requires countries to declare their causes for expulsion, a government might make such a move as part of a criminal investigation, or an ongoing, mutual diplomatic fight.
In a statement on social media site X, Rubio called Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool a “race-baiting politician who hates America and the president” and asserted that he “is no longer welcome” in the United States. Rasool, a long-time South African diplomat and a veteran anti-apartheid activist, had previously served as U.S. ambassador from 2010-2015, and had been reappointed to the post in early 2025.
While he gave no explanation on either social media or in official statements for the expulsion, Rubio linked to a report published by right-wing Breitbart News on an online speech Rasool gave to a South Africa-based think tank. In the speech, Rasool did not name Trump, but said that the MAGA movement was spurred on by “a supremacist instinct.” The comments drew some pointed criticism in South Africa, but crowds of supporters greeted Rasool when he landed back in Johannesburg after his expulsion. Rasool has refused to retract his statements.
The U.S. ambassador has yet to be confirmed
Ten days later, the Trump administration named its candidate for the ambassadorship to South Africa, L. Brent Bozell III. Bozell, who has a long career as a conservative writer and activist, has been a staunch supporter of Israel. In the 1980s, as head of the National Conservative Political Action Committee, Bozell defended the apartheid state, condemning the African National Congress (the current ruling party, and then-liberation movement under the leadership of Nelson Mandela and others) as a terrorist organization. This history seems uniquely positioned to further provoke the government in Pretoria. The Senate has received Bozell’s nomination, but confirmation proceedings have not yet moved forward.
In the midst of this diplomatic conflict, two Republican members of the House of Representatives introduced legislation on April 3 to review U.S.-South Africa relations, alleging that South Africa’s cooperation with “China, Russia, Iran and terrorist organizations” is a “betrayal that demands serious consequences.”
“Mission South Africa” is a controversial move
In late March, news outlets revealed that the Trump administration had taken steps to put into force the February executive order on granting refugee status to white Afrikaners. Under the name “Mission South Africa,” the administration has directed the creation of a task force to set up refugee centers in South Africa to process applications for refugee status.
Many of these procedures – setting up offices, soliciting applications, processing personal data, assisting with visa filings – are standard refugee program protocols. But here’s what’s so unusual about this case. First, such programs are typically instituted in major conflict zones or in periods of sustained or targeted violence; South Africa does not fall into these categories. Second, the Trump administration is establishing this program at the same time that it’s instituting a blanket suspension on refugee resettlement programs.
Trump’s refugee resettlement initiative, which contains instructions to focus efforts on farmers, and to specifically target Afrikaners, has reportedly received more than 8,000 applications. Yet the U.S. initiative has sparked controversy in South Africa. South African officials have rejected the refugee program as being premised on “false narratives.” And Afrikaner activists assert that they are not aware of anyone who wants to resettle, or claim refugee status. One Afrikaner-only community in South Africa has even asked for help from the Trump administration in their pursuit of autonomy in South Africa.
U.S. funding cuts will have a deep effect
While the diplomatic clashes continue and refugee centers open their doors, the effects of the Trump administration’s funding freeze are setting in, especially in the South African public health sector. The South African health minister estimated that approximately 900,000 South Africans living with HIV have had or will have their treatments affected by the funding cuts. One of the primary programs that facilitated this funding, the President’s Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), was paused in mid-February. PEPFAR primarily leveraged partnerships with local providers to distribute funds. The program’s reports credit these efforts with saving nearly 25 million lives since PEPFAR’s inception in 2003.
PEPFAR’s late-March reauthorization deadline has passed, leaving the whole program in limbo, though the House of Representatives has begun to hold hearings on the program. With the termination of U.S. aid to South Africa specifically, funding shortfalls and uncertainties will almost certainly undermine HIV treatment and prevention in South Africa. The cessation of these programs could lead to approximately 600,000 deaths and more than 500,000 new infections in South Africa within a decade.
U.S. funding cuts have also had wider macroeconomic impacts, including a weakening currency and flagging investor confidence. Attempts by the South African government to make up for these programs, among other issues, have led to a protracted fight over the national budget – threatening the cohesion of South Africa’s first national coalition government.
In a further blow, the Trump administration’s global tariff rollout on April 3 imposed a 31% tariff on South Africa’s exports to the United States. The South African government has announced it will not “retaliate.” But the U.S. tariffs effectively nullify any benefits from the African Growth and Opportunities Act, a U.S. preferential trade agreement that aimed to boost economic development in South Africa and other participating countries. The deterioration in this trade agreement, which is up for renewal this year, is likely to have two-way effects, though economists have debated the size of the effects.
Where we are now
Tensions between the United States and South Africa have been developing for years, but the diplomatic and economic fight has diversified and deepened since Trump took office in early 2025. While the passage of South Africa’s Expropriation Act – and the firestorm of misinformation about what it means for South African landowners – are the frontline bilateral issues, the tensions run deeper. The question of how to reestablish good relations is in the front of many South African officials’ minds, as U.S. officials continue to follow Trump’s “America First” foreign policy agenda.
A protracted diplomatic standoff seems likely to hurt the South African economy and the fortunes of the coalition government. The U.S. also stands to lose, as well. Trade with South Africa has more than doubled in value since 2019, and South Africa is a major source of precious minerals. Additionally, South Africa is a powerful local intermediary in the region for trade, including in rare earth minerals for high-tech manufacturing, but also in development, peace, and security negotiations.
The U.S. government’s funding cuts and tariffs, alongside the confirmation of new diplomats in Pretoria and Washington and the rollout of a contentious U.S. refugee program, seem unlikely to dispel the tensions in the near future.
Carolyn E. Holmes is an assistant professor of political science at The University of Tennessee, Knoxville. She is the author of The Black and White Rainbow: Reconciliation, Opposition, and Nation-Building in Democratic South Africa (University of Michigan Press, 2020). She writes in her professional capacity, but does not represent the University of Tennessee, or speak on its behalf.
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