Two new surveys show the U.S. public and academics see the world quite differently.
As global tensions rise, which foreign policy issues are likely to matter to voters on Nov. 5? Two recent surveys highlight a significant gap between ordinary Americans and international relations experts in how they prioritize foreign policy concerns.
Some academics, such as Josh Kertzer, have suggested that scholars overstate this elite-public gap. Kertzer argues that the gap arises from “compositional differences” – or who forms the elite – rather than what political elites know. In contrast, other scholars believe that the gap reflects genuine differences in how foreign policy elites and the broader public decide which policies and strategies are most important.
Pew surveyed the American public earlier this year
In April 2024, a Pew Research Center survey asked 3,600 U.S. adults to rank their top foreign policy concerns. This survey found that most Americans prioritize preventing terrorist attacks (73%), keeping illegal drugs out of the country (64%), and stopping the spread of weapons of mass destruction (63%).
Compared to 2018, more Americans now see limiting China’s power and influence (+17 percentage points) and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (+11 points) as top priorities. Climate change ranked 8th on the list of 22 issues this year, with only 44% of respondents saying it should be a top priority. That’s a 2 percentage point drop from Pew’s 2018 survey.
And the TRIP project surveyed international relations scholars
As part of its election-focused Snap Poll XIX in June and July 2024, the TRIP (Teaching, Research, and International Policy) survey asked international relations scholars at U.S. colleges and universities to rate the importance of a similar set of foreign policies from “not at all important” to “extremely important.” The results in the figure below are based on responses from the approximately 720 of the 5,146 contacted scholars who answered (a response rate of 14%). The experts’ ratings were at odds with the public’s priorities.
Notably, among the 720 international relations scholars who answered these questions, a majority identified climate change as “extremely important” – ranking it the top priority among the provided foreign policy options. Only 4% of respondents considered climate change “not important at all.”
And in stark contrast to what the U.S. public thinks, international terrorism ranked lowest on the academics’ list, with just 5% rating it as “extremely important.” The war in Ukraine was the second-highest priority, followed by the conflict in Gaza. Immigration, foreign aid, and trade also ranked as lower priorities for academics, compared to the public.
Campaign ads may try to convince the public what’s important
The coming flood of campaign advertisements – and the upcoming presidential debate – will no doubt highlight a handful of foreign policy topics. Four of the first five topics mentioned in the 2024 Republican Party Platform relate to foreign policy – immigration, deportation, global oil production, and global manufacturing. In comparison, the Democratic Party Platform primarily focuses on domestic policy, albeit with nods to the “Climate Crisis,” “the Broken Immigration System,” and “Strengthening American Leadership Worldwide.”
Of course, we’ll need to wait until November to see whether foreign policy issues shaped the final outcome – and what exit polls tell us about the foreign policy issues that mattered most to voters.
Anna Rowland is a graduating senior in the political science department at Temple University.
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