Recent polls show a sharp decline in pro-immigration sentiment, challenging long-held assumptions.
With just 102 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, will immigration policies and promises be a deciding factor in how Americans vote?
For decades, polls suggested that Americans were becoming increasingly pro-immigration. The famous Gallup poll, tracking public opinion on immigration since 1965, showed Republicans and Democrats alike becoming gradually more favorable towards immigration. By 2020, for the first time, more respondents said immigration should be increased rather than decreased.
Immigration advocates, academics, and nonprofits have long cited these trends to argue that restrictive U.S. immigration policies were out of step with public opinion. Some even labeled the idea of potentially rising anti-immigration sentiment as a myth – or simply the product of misinformation. While many also worried that the positive trends could end with the onset of the global covid-19 pandemic, this did not happen. Instead, in a somewhat surprising turn of events, the positive trends in U.S. attitudes towards immigration ended after Donald Trump failed to win reelection in 2020.
As the graph below shows, the June 2024 Gallup poll reveals a sharp decline in pro-immigration attitudes in the United States, returning to levels last seen in the early 2000s. Similar negative post-2020 trends – although to a lesser degree – appear in other long-running surveys across a range of immigration questions, including polling by Pew Research, YouGov, and Democracy Fund.
What’s behind these shifts?
Importantly, this setback is both due to Democrats returning to their pre-Trump positions and Republicans becoming even more anti-immigration than ever before. In 2020, Gallup poll results suggest that the majority of Democrats wanted to increase immigration, and the majority of Republicans favored a decrease in immigration to the United States. In 2024, few Democrats now want to increase immigration, while almost all Republicans now want to decrease it. This striking reversal aligns with warnings from some researchers, and my own analysis, that U.S. support for immigration might be much more fragile than we think.
Did polls overstate previous trends?
Of course, it’s not possible to survey the entire U.S. population, so even high-quality polls acknowledge a margin of error. For Gallup’s nationwide sample size of around 1,000 adults, the margin of error is typically around ±4 percentage points. While the margin of error doesn’t disprove long-term trends, it complicates short-term comparisons. Additionally, survey respondents tend to be more liberal than the general population, a bias that has worsened due to declining response rates. Consequently, recent polls may overestimate the increases in pro-immigration views.
When pro-immigration views do increase, they often carry less political weight because supporters tend to view this specific issue as less important to them personally, in contrast to how opponents view immigration. In short, predominantly Democratic voters who currently support immigration don’t see immigration as personally important, yet predominantly Republican voters who oppose immigration rank the issue as more important. This suggests the views of Republican voters may be more politically consequential – this group is likely to push harder to rein in immigration.
So what happened after Trump lost the 2020 election?
The negative shift in public opinion towards immigration we’ve seen since 2020 reflects a few different developments.
1. Immigration politics have become thermostatic:
Public opinion often moves against the current administration’s policies, acting as a “thermostat.” Many people – including moderate conservatives – disliked President Trump’s views and thought his immigration policies were too extreme. As a result, they wanted to “turn down the thermostat” on the issue. This dynamic is not unique to immigration or America.
Under the Biden administration, the thermostat on immigration reversed course. Many Americans view the current administration as more pro-immigration – that’s despite the implementation of both restrictive and liberal policy actions since Biden took office in January 2021. Consequently, voters may now desire more restrictive policies than they observe coming from the White House. These preferences may align more closely with their underlying views on immigration, which tend to remain relatively stable over time.
2. A burst of media coverage:
The reversal in public opinion also tracks closely with increased media coverage of immigration issues, especially from conservative outlets like Fox News. This largely negative coverage has been consistently higher under Biden’s presidency than during previous administrations. However, it’s important to recognize the increased spotlight on immigration can be both a cause and effect of public concern.
Still, media outlets respond to audience demand and real-world events, creating a feedback loop that may amplify the issue’s salience. This heightened attention has, in turn, likely contributed to both Democratic and Republican leaders expressing increased concerns about border security, potentially moving voters in both parties towards more skeptical positions on immigration.
3. Objective border and asylum challenges:
Beyond the media coverage, we’ve also seen tangible changes at the U.S.-Mexico border. The number of border encounters has reached record levels. The U.S. asylum system, in particular, has faced unprecedented challenges. The significant increase in the number of asylum seekers has overloaded the system’s current capacity to process claims efficiently.
No matter what one may think about U.S. humanitarian obligations and the merits of the current asylum system, these objective changes have undoubtedly fueled public perceptions of a “border crisis” and skepticism about current immigration policies. Despite Biden’s attempts to address these concerns, these moves have not sufficiently alleviated public anxiety about immigration management and border security.
Importantly, the post-2020 reversal of immigration public opinion appears to be almost a uniquely American phenomenon. Most other countries that receive immigrants have not experienced a similar decline in pro-immigration attitudes during the same exact period. This suggests that the combination of thermostatic political reactions, intense media coverage, and specific border challenges are uniquely shaping U.S. public opinion, highlighting the distinctive nature of America’s current immigration debate.
How immigration concerns factor into the 2024 election, and beyond
The Biden administration is widely criticized for handling the border situation, with recent polls showing that a majority of Americans across the political spectrum disapprove of their approach. Even with President Biden’s decision not to run for reelection, the reversal in public opinion poses significant challenges for any Democrat in the upcoming election, as immigration skeptics tend to prioritize the issue more highly.
Voters have also consistently cited immigration as one of the top issues in this election. This could play a crucial role in swing states where immigration concerns may influence voter decisions. Meanwhile, Republican candidates are likely to emphasize border security and stricter immigration policies, seeking to capitalize on the public’s growing skepticism towards more open immigration policies.
All in all, these recent public opinion shifts, alongside the issue’s high salience and partisan polarization, make the already slim prospects for comprehensive immigration reform even less likely in the near future, regardless of who wins the election. The thermostatic nature of public opinion on immigration suggests that attitudes could continue to fluctuate based on which party holds power and how they approach the issue. This dynamic further complicates efforts to build a stable legislative coalition to address new ways to address concerns about immigration.
Nonetheless, it’s crucial to remember that Americans are not uniformly against all immigration. Legal immigration of family members, along with skilled and otherwise needed workers, remains broadly popular, even among Republican voters. Moreover, despite the recent reversal, Americans are still much more open to immigration, in contrast to citizens of other countries.
Liberal and conservative governments alike may want to keep immigration popular
The recent reversal in pro-immigration attitudes underscores a critical lesson: No government can take public trust on immigration for granted. This applies to current and potential future administrations, including a possible second Trump term. While some may suspect that Republican politicians occasionally benefit from the continuous border chaos, all incumbent administrations also have a vested interest in maintaining popular backing for their own immigration policies.
Building and retaining public trust on immigration is not easy for any party or government. Trump’s family separation policy, along with other immigration policies during his administration, was decidedly unpopular and potentially electorally damaging. As Trump and his allies campaign on the promise of an even more harsh line on immigration –including mass deportations – they may well face significant public backlash.
Extreme positions on immigration are unlikely to garner widespread support. Viewing all immigration as a potential threat fails to resonate with most voters, just as does the idealistic notion of no immigration enforcement since both ignore people’s inclination to prioritize common national interest in a democracy. Public opinion typically takes a more nuanced middle ground, recognizing both the need for controlled immigration and the advantages of some legal immigration, as well as the importance of protecting established immigrant communities regardless of people’s legal status.
Could public opinion shift again?
Given the thermostatic nature of public opinion, would overly restrictive policies trigger a pro-immigration shift? After all, perceptions of the lax enforcement of U.S. immigration controls have helped drive the current anti-immigration swing. This dynamic cautions both advocates and opponents that sustainable immigration policy must align with public views and interests.
The big challenge for policymakers, then, is not just about changing how they talk about immigration. It’s about crafting immigration policies that are responsive to public concerns and demonstrably beneficial to the nation. This involves identifying popular legal immigration pathways, ensuring the perceptions of a controlled border as much as possible, and gradually building trust with voters. When voters feel confident in their government’s management of immigration, they’re more likely to support the incumbent and their immigration policies, even policies that help vulnerable groups fleeing violence.
Alex Kustov is a 2024-2025 Good Authority fellow.
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